|
"STOP
GROUNDLESS JURIDICAL PROSECUTIONS" 
THE
DEFENDER TURNED TO THE COURT PRIVILEDGE OF
THOUSAND DRAMS | NOBODY
SUSPECTED
 The
deputies played with the journalists "What? Where? When" quiz. As it
was expected the journalist proved their intellectual superiority. WILL
EVERYBODY GO IN? Politicians and serious political analyzers who have the
problem of being right usually avoid of making predictions. As I don't have such
a problem, let me try to predict the picture of the next parliament basing on
nowadays-political situation. I have predicted over than two years before that
R. Kocharian will stay in his post till 2008. There is no sign today that prediction
will be wrong. And more, those who were saying that people would rise in the next
spring / summer, autumn and winter/ and a national /democratic/ revolution would
be held don't predict for this spring and perhaps they wait for the current parliamentary
and presidential elections.
Thus the opposition of 2007 will get more than
half of real votes / nothing else is possible in a poor country/ but they will
officially get 15 % of votes. The main fight will be for the remain 85%. The players
of that fight will be a/ parties of highest officials and wealthy oligarchs/ RPA,
"Prosperous Armenia/, b/ party of average bureaucracy / "New country",
deputy Ministers and chief of departments who wish they were Ministers/ c/ nationalist
pro-authority parties /ARF, Bloc/ d/ liberal pro-authority parties /Orinats Erkir,
ULP/. It is possible theoretically to place all these seven. It is still difficult
to say how the president will behave on whose actions the mosaic of the parliament
will become clear; will he give the votes equally to his parties or will he appoint
a majority. It seems the first intention is more predictable.
The ANM have
a certain number of voters / party of opposition liberals/ and the Communistic
Party / party of pensioners/. But those two powers won't be able to enter the
NA because in that case the Parliament will look like a political body. But the
authority is interested in remaining the NA as an "object" of sharing
money and hiding incomes as it is now and will be more tomorrow.
In case of
fair elections the people's party / party of music and patriotic poem s lovers/
will have its sits in the NA. But unfortunately the places in the parliament are
limited. Aram Abrahamian |
| |
| Yerevan |
0 +2 | |
Tavush, Artsach | 0 +5 |
| Ararat, Armavir |
+2+3 |
|
